WoodMac’s 2026 mining outlook: geopolitics and capex discipline for project teams
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Geopolitical tension, China’s 15th Five-Year Plan pivoting from infrastructure to consumption, and US mid-term election uncertainty are set to make 2026 a volatile year for metals demand and pricing, with Wood Mackenzie lifting its base-case warming outlook to 2.6°C as decarbonisation slows. Copper is singled out for tight supply and tariff risk while most other metals remain oversupplied, pressuring prices even as solid-state battery progress and AI-driven data centre loads reshape power and metals demand. Capital discipline will keep miners favouring buybacks and M&A over greenfield projects, amplifying substitution battles such as copper versus aluminium and extending timelines in resource-nationalist jurisdictions.
Technical Brief
- Wood Mackenzie lifts its base-case global warming outlook from 2.5°C to 2.6°C, signalling slower decarbonisation.
- Solid-state battery commercialisation “expected in 2026” could materially alter cathode chemistry and critical mineral demand profiles.
- WoodMac flags copper as uniquely exposed to ongoing supply disruptions, unlike other metals forecast to stay oversupplied.
- Central bank accumulation is expected to underpin gold and silver demand, reinforcing their safe-haven price support.
- Trade barriers and tariffs are identified as amplifiers of price volatility by restricting cross-border metal flows and investment timing.
Our Take
Both this Wood Mackenzie outlook and the recent Sprott/Traxys piece in our database flag copper, aluminium and critical minerals as central to 2026 market dynamics, suggesting project developers in the US and China will face tighter scrutiny on offtake security and jurisdictional risk when raising capital.
The slight deterioration in Wood Mackenzie’s base-case warming outlook from 2.5°C to 2.6°C implies that decarbonisation policies may need to be more aggressive, which typically favours lower-carbon aluminium and copper supply from operators like Rio Tinto and Vale that can demonstrate verifiable emissions performance at mine and smelter level.
Coverage of China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan alongside US policy moves in our mining database consistently links battery metals and rare earths to industrial strategy, signalling that cross-border deals or processing investments in Brazil and the US will likely be evaluated as much on geopolitical alignment as on project economics.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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