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    Freeport’s Grasberg full-production path by 2027: schedule and risk notes for engineers

    May 20, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Freeport’s Grasberg full-production path by 2027: schedule and risk notes for engineers

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Freeport Indonesia plans to restore the Grasberg complex in Papua to full output by end-2027, with CEO Tony Wenas confirming operations are back to 50% capacity and targeting 65% later this year after last September’s fatal mudslide at the Grasberg Block Cave (seven deaths) forced a force majeure shutdown. Underground mining has resumed at the Deep Mill Level Zone and Big Gossan, while wetter-than-expected ore at GBC is requiring chute modifications and new water-management infrastructure. Output is forecast at 800 million lb copper and 700,000 oz gold in 2026, rising to 1.2 billion lb and 1 million oz in 2027, with $20 billion earmarked for post-2041 investment following a permit-extension MoU.

    Technical Brief

    • Mudslide at Grasberg Block Cave killed seven workers and triggered a full underground production halt.
    • Force majeure on concentrate shipments was declared, indicating material disruption to offtake and logistics contracts.
    • GBC ore is now “a lot wetter”, forcing chute redesign to handle higher water content and flowability.
    • New water-management infrastructure is being installed specifically to mitigate repeat mudslide / debris-flow type failures.
    • Mining has only resumed in non-GBC areas (Deep Mill Level Zone and Big Gossan) while GBC ramps cautiously.
    • For other high-altitude block caves, the incident underlines the need for dynamic hydrogeological models and adaptive ground-control design.

    Our Take

    The planned ramp-up at Grasberg to 1.2 billion lb of copper by 2027 positions Freeport-McMoRan as one of the few operators in our database with both near-term volume growth and a market capitalisation already approaching the $100 billion tier highlighted in the April 2026 coverage of the company.

    With the Indonesian government already holding 51.24% of Grasberg and a further 12% stake transfer in PT Freeport Indonesia flagged, operators on similar state-majority assets in Asia typically report tighter oversight on safety after fatal incidents, which could influence sequencing and pace of underground development at the Grasberg Block Cave and related zones.

    A permit horizon out to 2041 gives Grasberg unusually long regulatory runway compared with many copper projects in our Mining category, which suggests Freeport can justify higher upfront investment in deep-level infrastructure and ground control measures to manage geotechnical risk after the recent mudslide fatality.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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