Centerra’s $1.1B Kemess gold-copper PEA: project economics for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Centerra Gold’s Kemess copper-gold project in British Columbia has returned a base case post-tax NPV of $1.1 billion (5% discount) and 16.4% IRR in a new PEA, with initial capital of $771 million for a 15-year conventional open pit and longhole open stoping operation. The study lifts indicated resources to 244.4 million tonnes at 0.42 g/t gold and 0.21% copper, and inferred resources to 299.6 million tonnes at 0.37 g/t gold and 0.19% copper, leveraging existing Kemess infrastructure. Using spot prices of $4,500/oz gold and $6/lb copper, NPV rises to $2.7 billion and IRR to 29%, prompting BMO to raise its target price for Centerra to C$32/share.
Technical Brief
- PEA nearly triples Kemess’ NPV to $2.7 billion at $4,500/oz Au and $6/lb Cu.
- At those spot prices, project IRR increases to 29%, materially improving financing attractiveness.
- Indicated resources increased ~27% to 244.4 Mt, adding >30% contained metal versus May 2025.
- Inferred resources rose ~77% to 299.6 Mt, materially expanding the long-term development envelope.
- Existing Kemess infrastructure enables a “de-risked restart” strategy rather than full greenfield build-out.
- PEA economics place Kemess alongside Northisle’s North Island and Taseko’s Yellowhead as BC mid–upper tier projects.
- BMO’s target price uplift from C$20 to C$32/share reflects Kemess’ impact on Centerra’s North American portfolio.
Our Take
Within our 687 Mining stories, few Canadian copper-gold projects show a base-case post-tax IRR above 15% at a 5% discount rate, so Kemess’ 16.4% base case signals it could sit in the upper tier of North American development options on economics alone.
The combination of a 15-year mine life and life-of-mine outputs of 2.3 million oz. gold and 851 million lb. copper positions Kemess as a potential cornerstone asset for Centerra Gold relative to Mt Milligan, rather than a marginal satellite, if it advances beyond the PEA stage.
Re-use of a past-producing site in north-central British Columbia typically shortens timelines on infrastructure and baseline data; in our database, such brownfield copper-gold projects in BC tend to face more focused permitting debates around tailings and water management rather than greenfield land-use conflicts.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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