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    South America’s critical minerals edge: policy shifts and project risks for engineers

    September 4, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    South America’s critical minerals edge: policy shifts and project risks for engineers

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    South American governments are moving to coordinate critical-mineral policy, with Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Peru signing an Aug. 28 declaration on geology, regulation, suppliers, skills and financing, while Chile and Argentina revive a mining integration treaty that could unlock $20.7 billion and add 540,000 t/y of copper via cross-border projects such as El Pachón. Brazil’s new critical-minerals framework couples about $1 billion in tax incentives and a guarantee fund with tighter scrutiny of foreign partnerships and mining titles to expand refining, battery and magnet production. For engineers and operators, the opportunity lies in large copper, lithium and graphite reserves, but project viability will hinge on permitting timelines, fiscal stability and how far states push downstream value capture.

    Technical Brief

    • International Energy Agency projects a 25% copper supply deficit by 2035 based on current project pipeline.
    • New copper mines are assumed to require more than 15 years from discovery to production ramp-up.
    • Argentina and Chile jointly hold about 40% of global lithium reserves, concentrating brine-project potential.
    • Chile and Peru together control roughly 30% of the world’s copper reserves, underpinning long-life porphyry portfolios.
    • Brazil hosts about 25% of global graphite reserves and 15% of rare earth reserves, favouring anode and magnet chains.
    • Brazil’s framework couples tax incentives with a guarantee fund while empowering a new council to vet foreign partnerships and title changes.
    • Verisk Maplecroft ranks Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru as relatively low resource-nationalism risk despite large critical-mineral endowments.
    • For future projects, long mine lead times and tighter state oversight increase exposure to permitting delays and fiscal-policy shifts.

    Our Take

    With Chile and Peru holding about 30% of world copper reserves and Glencore already central to Collahuasi in Chile in our recent coverage, South American copper policy moves will directly influence the value of Glencore’s global copper portfolio and any future consolidation plays.

    Brazil’s 25% share of global graphite reserves and 15% of rare earth reserves, combined with roughly $1 billion in tax incentives, position it as a non‑Chinese option in the graphite and rare earths space, which is notable given other recent rare earth items in our database are still heavily China‑centric.

    The projected 25% copper supply shortfall by 2035, set against mine development lead times of up to 15 years, implies that frameworks like the revived Chile–Argentina mining integration treaty (with $20.7 billion of potential investment) need to translate into shovel‑ready copper and lithium projects almost immediately to affect the 2030s balance.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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