Goldman $5,400 gold call: price drivers and planning signals for mine projects
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 year-end gold price forecast to $5,400/oz after bullion gained about 40% last year and a further 11% since January, with spot trading around $4,885/oz and brushing a record $4,887.19. Analysts cite sustained central bank buying of roughly 60 tonnes in 2026, led by emerging markets diversifying reserves, plus private-sector investors using gold to hedge global policy risk and not liquidating positions. The bank warns downside risk remains if long-run monetary policy risks ease sharply.
Technical Brief
- Goldman’s revised target is 10% higher than its previous year-end price forecast.
- Analysts explicitly assume private-sector holders do not liquidate positions during 2026 when modelling trajectories.
- Central bank buying is expected to be dominated by emerging-market institutions reallocating official reserves into bullion.
- Price action has recently broken successive resistance levels at about $4,700/oz and $4,800/oz.
- Spot gold moved 1% in a single session to around $4,885/oz, close to the record.
- The all-time high referenced is $4,887.19/oz, set the day before the 1% move.
- Downside scenario is tied to a sharp fall in perceived long-run global monetary policy risk, not short-term data.
Our Take
With gold already having surged 75% over 12 months to a record $4,887/oz in the 21 January piece in our database, Goldman Sachs’ further uplift to a $5,400 year-end view effectively normalises what was initially treated as a spike, which may embolden higher-cost projects to assume elevated long‑term prices in their economics.
The forecasted average 60 tonnes/year of central bank purchases in 2026, combined with the recent record‑price coverage, suggests official‑sector demand is now a structural line item in gold market models rather than a cyclical tailwind, which can support financing narratives for marginal or brownfield gold expansions highlighted in the University of Queensland brownfield study.
Among the 228 gold‑keyword pieces in our database, only a handful involve such aggressive price targets from tier‑one institutions like Goldman Sachs, signalling to project developers and lenders that bullish assumptions are increasingly coming from mainstream houses rather than just specialist gold commentators.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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