Copper price pullback from record highs: risk and supply signals for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper for September delivery on Comex fell up to 2.5% to $6.33/lb, about 5% below its early-June record, as US‑Iran war risk outweighed strong Q2 results from Teck Resources, Freeport‑McMoRan and Southern Copper, which together reported copper output above guidance and unit cash costs near $1.90/lb. Chilean winter storms have temporarily suspended operations at Lundin’s Caserones and partially at Teck’s Carmen de Andacollo, while Panama is considering a state-owned partner or lease structure to restart First Quantum’s Cobre Panama. LME copper stocks dropped to 284,175 tonnes and Shanghai deliverable inventories are down 82% since May, even as Comex warehouse holdings exceed 630,000 tonnes on anticipated US tariffs.
Technical Brief
- Teck’s Q2 adjusted EBITDA reached C$2.19 billion, with revenue up 78% to C$3.61 billion.
- Copper output at Teck increased 25% year-on-year to 135,900 tonnes, at an average realised $6.05/lb.
- Anglo–Teck merger has regulatory clearance in Canada, Chile and Japan; China remains the key pending approval.
- Freeport-McMoRan sold 710 million lb copper in Q2 at $6.17/lb, exceeding April shipment guidance.
- Grasberg Block Cave full restart is now deferred to early 2028 following last year’s fatal mudslide.
- Southern Copper recorded Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $2.86 billion and net income of $1.67 billion.
- Southern Copper targets >1 Mtpa copper by 2029, with 2026 guidance lifted to 917,000 tonnes.
- In Panama, options for Cobre Panama include a 60–65% First Quantum stake in a state JV or a lease-for-royalties model.
- LME copper stocks fell 6,750 tonnes in a single day to 284,175 tonnes, with over half on cancelled warrants.
Our Take
Teck Resources’ strong copper EBITDA in this piece sits alongside a parallel push into critical minerals like germanium and gallium at its Trail facility, as flagged in our July 2026 coverage, suggesting Teck is positioning its copper growth within a broader energy-transition metals portfolio rather than as a single-commodity bet.
The extremely low exchange inventory coverage of around 15 days and the sharp 82% drawdown in Shanghai deliverable stocks mean that any further weather-related disruptions at Chilean mines such as Caserones or Carmen de Andacollo could translate into outsized price volatility, even if macro risk-off sentiment is currently capping copper’s upside.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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