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    Aluminium’s US comeback hinges on power: grid and smelter economics for engineers

    May 29, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Aluminium’s US comeback hinges on power: grid and smelter economics for engineers

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    US efforts to revive primary aluminium hinge on securing long-term, industrial-scale power contracts of 500+ MW per smelter, with advocates warning that data centres and hyperscalers are outbidding producers for grid capacity. Imports of Canadian primary aluminium fell from 2,745 kt in 2024 to 1,950 kt in 2025 after Section 232 tariffs rose to 50%, even as Century Aluminum and Emirates Global Aluminium plan the first new US smelter since 1980 in Oklahoma, still stalled pending a power deal. Rio Tinto’s $1.5 billion AP60 low-carbon smelter expansion in Quebec and EU CBAM-driven demand are meanwhile pulling more Canadian hydropower-based metal towards Europe, risking longer-term diversion of supply away from the US.

    Technical Brief

    • New primary smelters are modelled needing >500 MW dedicated load, equivalent to a mid-sized city’s demand.
    • Only four US primary smelters remain (Massena NY, Warrick IN, Sebree KY, Mt Holly SC) versus 30+ in 1980.
    • Century is spending about $50 million to restart >50,000 t/year of previously idled Mt Holly capacity.
    • Typical smelter development timelines are ~5 years from commitment to metal, constraining rapid reshoring responses.
    • Canada currently operates 10 primary smelters, largely hydropower-fed in Quebec and British Columbia, supplying low‑carbon metal.

    Our Take

    The 500 MW-plus power requirement for a new US aluminum smelter puts it in the same grid-impact class as large data centres or LNG trains, which in North America are already competing hard for firm low-carbon power and transmission capacity.

    Rio Tinto’s C$1.5 billion AP60 low‑carbon smelter expansion in Quebec signals that, within our Materials coverage, new primary aluminum capacity is gravitating to hydro-rich Canada rather than the US, despite the latter’s higher tariff wall.

    With only four operating US primary smelters versus ten in Canada in our database, any Century Aluminum restarts at Mt Holly or similar sites are likely to hinge more on securing long-term renewable PPAs than on incremental changes to Section 232 tariff levels.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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